The news of the Appeal Court Affirming Adams Oshiomhole’s ousting from the seat of National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress party of Nigeria has come to a shock to many, as the vociferous party chairman has been very instrumental in recent success the party scored in elections held in the nation in recent past, including the Bayelsa State victory for APC.
Bayelsa State has been a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) State since the inception of the fourth republic in Nigeria and is the home state of Goodluck Jonathan the former President of Nigeria, one of the heavy chieftain of the main opposition party in the nation, though that result was later out turned at the election tribunal on technical grounds as there was issues in the APC Candidates credentials.
Now the Acting National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Victor Giadom has cancelled the screening for the Edo State governorship primary, even though there is speculations over the authenticity of his position as three names are being bandied about for the same position. The cancellation of the previous screening that resulted in disqualifying of Obaseki is believed to be a hint of hope to the Governor of Edo State, and considered by political pundit as a desperate measure to ensure that he doesn’t discard the party for the opposition.
First Obaseki’s defection as Governor of Edo State will reduce the ruling party to a regional party, as it will lose its seemingly national status because Edo State is the only state in the South –South geopolitical zone of Nigeria that the ruling party controls, the rest are under the control of PDP which are Delta, Rivers, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa States.
Already without Edo State PDP is already cemented as a national party in the nation, as it controls states in all the 6 Geopolitical zones of the nation. In North WEST-Sokoto and Zamfara are PDP States. In North East-Taraba, Adamawa and Bauchi States are being led by PDP.
In North Central and South West Zones they have Benue and Oyo States, while in South East of Nigeria PDP is ruling Ebonyi, Enugu, Abia, while Anambra is being led by All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and in South- South, PDP controls Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross River, Delta, and Akwa Ibom.
Without Edo State, APC domination of the political landscape will be reduce to 4 states; as PDP controls 15 states already while APC controls 20 states and the FCT. APC will also cease being a full national party in the sense that they won’t have any seat of power in the South -South geographical zone of the nation.
Now Anambra State people despite being under the strong hold of APGA tends to vote PDP more on presidential election and this mean that is a PDP State in Proxy when it comes to presidential elections thereby reducing APC State power over PDP to 3.
And with Imo previously winning the State election before the tribunal usurped the result , now with the seemingly internal division in Imo APC which are being led by Governor Hope Uzodinma, and Former Governor Rochas Okorocha ,this battle of elephants in the state will seemingly tip the State towards PDP ,thereby almost reducing APC national influence to only two states over PDP and yet 2023 election is 2 years and 10 months away.
Saving the situation by ensuring that Obaseki remains on seat as an APC Governor before the September guber election in the state is one of the safest measures for APC to save its national status and also extends its comparative advantage over the main opposition.